Hebei Kungfu 3–0 Suzhou Dongwu: Result & Stats

Hebei Kungfu

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Suzhou Dongwu

11/5/2023

League One · Round 30Yutong International Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Hebei Kungfu45%

×Draw28%

Suzhou Dongwu27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebei KungfuExpected goals in this matchSuzhou Dongwu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.98

Hebei Kungfu

1.35

Suzhou Dongwu

0.98

Hebei Kungfu creates 38% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 93 away

1.33

creates per match

1.10

0.86

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Hebei Kungfu

1.33

Suzhou Dongwu

1.10

allows per match

Hebei Kungfu

0.86

Suzhou Dongwu

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par

Suzhou Dongwu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Kungfu ↓

Suzhou Dongwu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hebei Kungfu or draw

73%

Hebei Kungfu or Suzhou Dongwu

72%

Draw or Suzhou Dongwu

55%

Winning margin

Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+

21%

Suzhou Dongwu wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals

74%

Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals

39%

Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals

15%

Suzhou Dongwu 1+ goals

62%

Suzhou Dongwu 2+ goals

26%

Suzhou Dongwu 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)

62%

Suzhou Dongwu (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Kungfu at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 70 matches

Suzhou Dongwu away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.33 + Suzhou Dongwu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Suzhou Dongwu attack 1.10 + Hebei Kungfu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hebei Kungfu scores more

45%

level

28%

Suzhou Dongwu scores more

27%

Hebei Kungfu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff