Hebei Kungfu 1–2 Jinan Xingzhou: Result & Stats

Hebei Kungfu

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Jinan Xingzhou

4/29/2023

League One · Round 2Yutong International Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hebei Kungfu42%

×Draw29%

Jinan Xingzhou29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hebei KungfuExpected goals in this matchJinan Xingzhou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.97

Hebei Kungfu

1.24

Jinan Xingzhou

0.97

Hebei Kungfu creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

1.35

creates per match

1.07

0.87

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Hebei Kungfu

1.35

Jinan Xingzhou

1.07

allows per match

Hebei Kungfu

0.87

Jinan Xingzhou

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Kungfu ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hebei Kungfu or draw

71%

Hebei Kungfu or Jinan Xingzhou

71%

Draw or Jinan Xingzhou

58%

Winning margin

Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+

19%

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals

71%

Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals

35%

Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals

13%

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals

62%

Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals

25%

Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)

59%

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Kungfu at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 69 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.35 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Hebei Kungfu defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hebei Kungfu scores more

42%

level

29%

Jinan Xingzhou scores more

29%

Hebei Kungfu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff