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Hebei Kungfu vs Dantong Hantong — League One 2018

Hebei Kungfu
Hebei Kungfu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
7/15/2023League OneLeague One · Round 14Yutong International Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hebei Kungfu50%
×Draw29%
Dantong Hantong21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebei Kungfu
1.31
Dantong Hantong
0.73

Hebei Kungfu creates 79% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hebei Kungfu
1.35
Dantong Hantong
0.60

allows per match

Hebei Kungfu
0.87
Dantong Hantong
1.27

finishing

Hebei Kungfu+0.00on par
Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Kungfu ↓

Dantong Hantong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hebei Kungfu or draw
79%
Hebei Kungfu or Dantong Hantong
71%
Draw or Dantong Hantong
50%

Winning margin

Hebei Kungfu wins by 2+
24%
Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hebei Kungfu 1+ goals
73%
Hebei Kungfu 2+ goals
38%
Hebei Kungfu 3+ goals
14%
Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
52%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
17%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hebei Kungfu (draw refunded)
71%
Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Kungfu at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 69 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Kungfu attack 1.35 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Hebei Kungfu defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hebei Kungfu scores more
50%
level
29%
Dantong Hantong scores more
21%

Hebei Kungfu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hebei Kungfu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Hebei Kungfu 2–1 Dantong Hantong

Hebei Kungfu beat Dantong Hantong 2-1 in League One on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Yutong International Sports Center in Shijiazhuang.