Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hebburn Town vs Hartlepool — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hebburn Town
Hebburn Town
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
J. Charles 89'
K. Foreman 36'
C. Popov 66'
M. Kouogun 60'
L. Charman 17'
7/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hebburn Town25%
×Draw17%
Hartlepool57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebburn Town
2.00
Hartlepool
3.00

Hartlepool creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hebburn Town
2.50
Hartlepool
3.50

allows per match

Hebburn Town
2.50
Hartlepool
1.50

finishing

Hebburn Town+0.00on par
Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebburn Town ↓

Hartlepool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Hebburn Town or draw
43%
Hebburn Town or Hartlepool
83%
Draw or Hartlepool
75%

Winning margin

Hebburn Town wins by 2+
13%
Hartlepool wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Hebburn Town 1+ goals
86%
Hebburn Town 2+ goals
59%
Hebburn Town 3+ goals
32%
Hartlepool 1+ goals
95%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
79%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Hebburn Town (draw refunded)
31%
Hartlepool (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebburn Town at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebburn Town attack 2.50 + Hartlepool defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hartlepool attack 3.50 + Hebburn Town defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hebburn Town scores more
25%
level
17%
Hartlepool scores more
57%

Hartlepool at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
L. Charman
36'
K. Foreman
60'
M. Kouogun
66'
C. Popov
89'
J. Charles

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebburn Town vs Hartlepool

Hartlepool beat Hebburn Town 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 21, 2026.

Goals: L. Charman (17'), K. Foreman (36'), M. Kouogun (60'), C. Popov (66'), J. Charles (89').