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Hebburn Town vs Gateshead — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hebburn Town
Hebburn Town
FT
1 – 4
Gateshead
Gateshead
7/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hebburn Town32%
×Draw19%
Gateshead49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebburn Town
2.08
Gateshead
2.58

Gateshead creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hebburn Town
2.50
Gateshead
2.67

allows per match

Hebburn Town
2.50
Gateshead
1.67

finishing

Hebburn Town+0.00on par
Gateshead+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebburn Town ↓

Gateshead →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Hebburn Town or draw
51%
Hebburn Town or Gateshead
81%
Draw or Gateshead
68%

Winning margin

Hebburn Town wins by 2+
17%
Gateshead wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Hebburn Town 1+ goals
87%
Hebburn Town 2+ goals
61%
Hebburn Town 3+ goals
34%
Gateshead 1+ goals
92%
Gateshead 2+ goals
72%
Gateshead 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Hebburn Town (draw refunded)
39%
Gateshead (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebburn Town at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Gateshead away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebburn Town attack 2.50 + Gateshead defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gateshead attack 2.67 + Hebburn Town defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hebburn Town scores more
32%
level
19%
Gateshead scores more
49%

Gateshead at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gateshead will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebburn Town vs Gateshead

Gateshead beat Hebburn Town 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2021.