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Hebar II vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
2/26/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 21Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II44%
×Draw26%
Slivnishki geroy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
1.48
Slivnishki geroy
1.20

Hebar II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 130 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
69%
Hebar II or Slivnishki geroy
74%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
56%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
21%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
77%
Hebar II 2+ goals
43%
Hebar II 3+ goals
19%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
70%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
34%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
59%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hebar II scores more
44%
level
26%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
31%

Hebar II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Hebar II 1–0 Slivnishki geroy

Hebar II beat Slivnishki geroy 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.