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Hebar II vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
2 – 1
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
8/5/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 1Stadion Saraya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II47%
×Draw23%
Slavia Sofia II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
1.75
Slavia Sofia II
1.35

Hebar II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
70%
Hebar II or Slavia Sofia II
77%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
53%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
25%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
83%
Hebar II 2+ goals
52%
Hebar II 3+ goals
25%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
74%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
39%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
61%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.75

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hebar II scores more
47%
level
23%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
30%

Hebar II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hebar II 2 – 1 Slavia Sofia II

Hebar II beat Slavia Sofia II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Saraya in Saraya.