Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hebar II vs Rilski Sportist — Third League - Southwest 2018

Hebar II
Hebar II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
5/22/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 36Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hebar II46%
×Draw25%
Rilski Sportist29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar II
1.62
Rilski Sportist
1.23

Hebar II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 129 away

creates per match

Hebar II
1.51
Rilski Sportist
1.07

allows per match

Hebar II
1.38
Rilski Sportist
1.73

finishing

Hebar II+0.00on par
Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar II ↓

Rilski Sportist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hebar II or draw
71%
Hebar II or Rilski Sportist
75%
Draw or Rilski Sportist
54%

Winning margin

Hebar II wins by 2+
24%
Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hebar II 1+ goals
80%
Hebar II 2+ goals
48%
Hebar II 3+ goals
22%
Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
71%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
35%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hebar II (draw refunded)
62%
Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar II at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar II attack 1.51 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Hebar II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hebar II scores more
46%
level
25%
Rilski Sportist scores more
29%

Hebar II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hebar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hebar II 3 – 3 Rilski Sportist

Hebar II and Rilski Sportist drew 3-3 in Third League - Southwest on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.