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Hebar 1918 vs Krasnodar 2 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
CANC
00:00
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
1/22/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hebar 191870%
×Draw15%
Krasnodar 214%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
2.97
Krasnodar 2
1.30

Hebar 1918 creates 128% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
3.14
Krasnodar 2
1.60

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.00
Krasnodar 2
2.80

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
86%
Hebar 1918 or Krasnodar 2
85%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
30%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
50%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
95%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
79%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
56%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
73%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
37%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
83%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 3.14 + Krasnodar 2 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.97

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.60 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
70%
level
15%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
14%

Hebar 1918 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hebar 1918 vs Krasnodar 2 — Match Preview

Hebar 1918 face Krasnodar 2 on January 22, 2023 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hebar 1918 host Krasnodar 2 at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.