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Hebar 1918 vs CSKA Sofia II — Second League 2018

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
9/14/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hebar 191844%
×Draw25%
CSKA Sofia II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
1.56
CSKA Sofia II
1.26

Hebar 1918 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 39 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
1.80
CSKA Sofia II
1.38

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.15
CSKA Sofia II
1.33

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

CSKA Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
69%
Hebar 1918 or CSKA Sofia II
75%
Draw or CSKA Sofia II
56%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
22%
CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
79%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
46%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
21%
CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
72%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
36%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
59%
CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 1.80 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.38 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
44%
level
25%
CSKA Sofia II scores more
31%

Hebar 1918 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebar 1918 vs CSKA Sofia II

Hebar 1918 and CSKA Sofia II drew 1-1 in Second League on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.