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Hebar 1918 vs CSKA Sofia — First League 2026

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia
11/30/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hebar 191823%
×Draw28%
CSKA Sofia49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
0.83
CSKA Sofia
1.36

CSKA Sofia creates 64% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 133 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
0.83
CSKA Sofia
1.32

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.40
CSKA Sofia
0.83

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
CSKA Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

CSKA Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
51%
Hebar 1918 or CSKA Sofia
72%
Draw or CSKA Sofia
77%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
7%
CSKA Sofia wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
56%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
20%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
5%
CSKA Sofia 1+ goals
74%
CSKA Sofia 2+ goals
39%
CSKA Sofia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
32%
CSKA Sofia (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

CSKA Sofia away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + CSKA Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

CSKA Sofia attack 1.32 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
23%
level
28%
CSKA Sofia scores more
49%

CSKA Sofia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CSKA Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Hebar 1918 0–1 CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia beat Hebar 1918 1-0 in First League on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.