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Hebar 1918 vs Cherno More Varna — First League 2018

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna
3/2/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hebar 191829%
×Draw29%
Cherno More Varna42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
0.97
Cherno More Varna
1.23

Cherno More Varna creates 27% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 136 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
0.83
Cherno More Varna
1.06

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.40
Cherno More Varna
1.10

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
Cherno More Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Cherno More Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
58%
Hebar 1918 or Cherno More Varna
71%
Draw or Cherno More Varna
71%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
11%
Cherno More Varna wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
62%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
25%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
7%
Cherno More Varna 1+ goals
71%
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
35%
Cherno More Varna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
41%
Cherno More Varna (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

Cherno More Varna away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + Cherno More Varna defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Cherno More Varna attack 1.06 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
29%
level
29%
Cherno More Varna scores more
42%

Cherno More Varna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cherno More Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Hebar 1918 0–1 Cherno More Varna

Cherno More Varna beat Hebar 1918 1-0 in First League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.