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Hebar 1918 vs Arda Kardzhali — First League 2018

Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
12/9/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hebar 191831%
×Draw29%
Arda Kardzhali40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebar 1918
1.00
Arda Kardzhali
1.19

Arda Kardzhali creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hebar 1918
0.83
Arda Kardzhali
0.99

allows per match

Hebar 1918
1.40
Arda Kardzhali
1.17

finishing

Hebar 1918+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebar 1918 ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hebar 1918 or draw
60%
Hebar 1918 or Arda Kardzhali
71%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
69%

Winning margin

Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
11%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hebar 1918 1+ goals
63%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
26%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
8%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
70%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
33%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
43%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebar 1918 at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebar 1918 attack 0.83 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hebar 1918 scores more
31%
level
29%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
40%

Arda Kardzhali at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebar 1918 vs Arda Kardzhali

Arda Kardzhali beat Hebar 1918 2-0 in First League on December 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Pazardzhik.