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Heaven Eleven vs Wologizi — LFA First Division 2020

Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wologizi
Wologizi
11/13/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Heaven Eleven50%
×Draw23%
Wologizi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heaven Eleven
1.86
Wologizi
1.30

Heaven Eleven creates 43% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

creates per match

Heaven Eleven
1.72
Wologizi
1.29

allows per match

Heaven Eleven
1.31
Wologizi
2.00

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par
Wologizi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

Wologizi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw
73%
Heaven Eleven or Wologizi
77%
Draw or Wologizi
50%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
28%
Wologizi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
84%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
55%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
28%
Wologizi 1+ goals
73%
Wologizi 2+ goals
37%
Wologizi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
65%
Wologizi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Wologizi away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + Wologizi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Wologizi attack 1.29 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more
50%
level
23%
Wologizi scores more
27%

Heaven Eleven at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heaven Eleven vs Wologizi

Heaven Eleven beat Wologizi 2-1 in LFA First Division on November 13, 2025.