Heaven Eleven 2–3 Nimba Kwado: Result & Stats

Heaven Eleven

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Nimba Kwado

11/22/2023

LFA First Division · Round 10Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Heaven Eleven44%

×Draw25%

Nimba Kwado31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heaven ElevenExpected goals in this matchNimba Kwado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.23

Heaven Eleven

1.51

Nimba Kwado

1.23

Heaven Eleven creates 23% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 50 away

1.72

creates per match

1.16

1.31

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Heaven Eleven

1.72

Nimba Kwado

1.16

allows per match

Heaven Eleven

1.31

Nimba Kwado

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

Nimba Kwado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw

69%

Heaven Eleven or Nimba Kwado

75%

Draw or Nimba Kwado

56%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+

22%

Nimba Kwado wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals

78%

Heaven Eleven 2+ goals

44%

Heaven Eleven 3+ goals

19%

Nimba Kwado 1+ goals

71%

Nimba Kwado 2+ goals

35%

Nimba Kwado 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)

59%

Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Nimba Kwado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + Nimba Kwado defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.51

Nimba Kwado attack 1.16 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more

44%

level

25%

Nimba Kwado scores more

31%

Heaven Eleven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff