Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Heaven Eleven vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
FT
2 – 0
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
3/3/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 18TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Heaven Eleven52%
×Draw24%
Invincible Eleven24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heaven Eleven
1.74
Invincible Eleven
1.10

Heaven Eleven creates 58% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Heaven Eleven
1.72
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Heaven Eleven
1.31
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw
76%
Heaven Eleven or Invincible Eleven
76%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
48%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
29%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
82%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
52%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
25%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
67%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
30%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
69%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.74

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more
52%
level
24%
Invincible Eleven scores more
24%

Heaven Eleven at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heaven Eleven vs Invincible Eleven

Heaven Eleven beat Invincible Eleven 2-0 in LFA First Division on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.