Heaven Eleven 4–1 Black Man Warrior: Result & Stats

Heaven Eleven

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Black Man Warrior

3/7/2025

LFA First Division · Round 21Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Heaven Eleven47%

×Draw26%

Black Man Warrior27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heaven ElevenExpected goals in this matchBlack Man Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.08

Heaven Eleven

1.49

Black Man Warrior

1.08

Heaven Eleven creates 38% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 27 away

1.72

creates per match

0.85

1.31

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Heaven Eleven

1.72

Black Man Warrior

0.85

allows per match

Heaven Eleven

1.31

Black Man Warrior

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

Black Man Warrior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw

73%

Heaven Eleven or Black Man Warrior

74%

Draw or Black Man Warrior

53%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+

23%

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals

77%

Heaven Eleven 2+ goals

44%

Heaven Eleven 3+ goals

19%

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals

66%

Black Man Warrior 2+ goals

29%

Black Man Warrior 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)

63%

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

Black Man Warrior away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.49

Black Man Warrior attack 0.85 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more

47%

level

26%

Black Man Warrior scores more

27%

Heaven Eleven at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff