Heaven Eleven 1–2 BEA Mountain: Result & Stats

Heaven Eleven

FT

1 – 2

BEA Mountain

11/12/2022

LFA First Division · Round 11Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Heaven Eleven34%

×Draw24%

BEA Mountain41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heaven ElevenExpected goals in this matchBEA Mountain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.58

Heaven Eleven

1.42

BEA Mountain

1.58

BEA Mountain creates 11% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 74 away

1.72

creates per match

1.84

1.31

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Heaven Eleven

1.72

BEA Mountain

1.84

allows per match

Heaven Eleven

1.31

BEA Mountain

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heaven Eleven ↓

BEA Mountain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Heaven Eleven or draw

59%

Heaven Eleven or BEA Mountain

76%

Draw or BEA Mountain

66%

Winning margin

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+

16%

BEA Mountain wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals

76%

Heaven Eleven 2+ goals

41%

Heaven Eleven 3+ goals

17%

BEA Mountain 1+ goals

79%

BEA Mountain 2+ goals

47%

BEA Mountain 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)

45%

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heaven Eleven at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.31 · 67 matches

BEA Mountain away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heaven Eleven attack 1.72 + BEA Mountain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

BEA Mountain attack 1.84 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Heaven Eleven scores more

34%

level

24%

BEA Mountain scores more

41%

BEA Mountain at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff