BEA Mountain 1–1 Heaven Eleven: Result & Stats

BEA Mountain

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Heaven Eleven

10/26/2025

LFA First Division · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

BEA Mountain47%

×Draw25%

Heaven Eleven29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BEA MountainExpected goals in this matchHeaven Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.22

BEA Mountain

1.62

Heaven Eleven

1.22

BEA Mountain creates 33% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 60 away

1.74

creates per match

1.55

0.89

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

BEA Mountain

1.74

Heaven Eleven

1.55

allows per match

BEA Mountain

0.89

Heaven Eleven

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

Heaven Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw

71%

BEA Mountain or Heaven Eleven

75%

Draw or Heaven Eleven

53%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+

24%

Heaven Eleven wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals

80%

BEA Mountain 2+ goals

48%

BEA Mountain 3+ goals

22%

Heaven Eleven 1+ goals

70%

Heaven Eleven 2+ goals

34%

Heaven Eleven 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)

62%

Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.62

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

BEA Mountain scores more

47%

level

25%

Heaven Eleven scores more

29%

BEA Mountain at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff