Hearts of Oak 1–0 Vision: Result & Stats

Hearts of Oak

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vision

11/8/2024

Premier League · Round 10University Of Ghana Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hearts of Oak53%

×Draw29%

Vision18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hearts of OakExpected goals in this matchVision

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.64

Hearts of Oak

1.32

Vision

0.64

Hearts of Oak creates 106% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 33 away

1.25

creates per match

0.61

0.66

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hearts of Oak

1.25

Vision

0.61

allows per match

Hearts of Oak

0.66

Vision

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Vision →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw

82%

Hearts of Oak or Vision

71%

Draw or Vision

47%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

26%

Vision wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

73%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

38%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

15%

Vision 1+ goals

47%

Vision 2+ goals

14%

Vision 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

75%

Vision (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Vision away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.25 + Vision defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Vision attack 0.61 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more

53%

level

29%

Vision scores more

18%

Hearts of Oak at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff