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Hearts of Oak vs Swedru All Blacks — Premier League 2019

Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Swedru All Blacks
Swedru All Blacks
3/29/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hearts of Oak49%
×Draw30%
Swedru All Blacks21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hearts of Oak
1.25
Swedru All Blacks
0.71

Hearts of Oak creates 76% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hearts of Oak
1.25
Swedru All Blacks
0.76

allows per match

Hearts of Oak
0.66
Swedru All Blacks
1.24

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par
Swedru All Blacks+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Swedru All Blacks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw
79%
Hearts of Oak or Swedru All Blacks
70%
Draw or Swedru All Blacks
51%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
23%
Swedru All Blacks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
71%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
36%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
13%
Swedru All Blacks 1+ goals
51%
Swedru All Blacks 2+ goals
16%
Swedru All Blacks 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
70%
Swedru All Blacks (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Swedru All Blacks away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.25 + Swedru All Blacks defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Swedru All Blacks attack 0.76 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more
49%
level
30%
Swedru All Blacks scores more
21%

Hearts of Oak at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hearts of Oak vs Swedru All Blacks

Hearts of Oak and Swedru All Blacks drew 2-2 in Premier League on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at WAFA Park in Sogakope.