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Hearts of Oak vs Samartex — Premier League 2019

Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samartex
Samartex
K. Yiadom 57'
6/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Accra Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hearts of Oak50%
×Draw31%
Samartex19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hearts of Oak
1.19
Samartex
0.60

Hearts of Oak creates 98% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hearts of Oak
1.25
Samartex
0.54

allows per match

Hearts of Oak
0.66
Samartex
1.12

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par
Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Samartex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw
81%
Hearts of Oak or Samartex
69%
Draw or Samartex
50%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
23%
Samartex wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
70%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
33%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
12%
Samartex 1+ goals
45%
Samartex 2+ goals
12%
Samartex 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
73%
Samartex (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.25 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Samartex attack 0.54 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more
50%
level
31%
Samartex scores more
19%

Hearts of Oak at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
E. Ocran← E. Ocran
32'
A. Yahaya← A. Yahaya
57'
K. Yiadom
59'
K. Yiadom
74'
M. Karikari← M. Karikari
83'
B. Afful← B. Afful
85'
D. Oppong Afrane← D. Oppong Afrane
85'
S. Appiah Asare← S. Appiah Asare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hearts of Oak 1–0 Samartex

Hearts of Oak beat Samartex 1-0 in Premier League on June 8, 2025.

Goals: K. Yiadom (57').

The match was played at Accra Sports Stadium in Accra.