Hearts of Oak 0–0 Samartex: Result & Stats

Hearts of Oak

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Samartex

1/15/2023

Premier League · Round 13Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hearts of Oak50%

×Draw31%

Samartex19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hearts of OakExpected goals in this matchSamartex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.59

Hearts of Oak

1.18

Samartex

0.59

Hearts of Oak creates 100% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 68 away

1.24

creates per match

0.54

0.65

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Hearts of Oak

1.24

Samartex

0.54

allows per match

Hearts of Oak

0.65

Samartex

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Samartex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw

81%

Hearts of Oak or Samartex

69%

Draw or Samartex

50%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

22%

Samartex wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

69%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

33%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

12%

Samartex 1+ goals

45%

Samartex 2+ goals

12%

Samartex 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

73%

Samartex (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.65 · 110 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.24 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Samartex attack 0.54 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more

50%

level

31%

Samartex scores more

19%

Hearts of Oak at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

R. Okine

40'

S. Inkoom

43'

E. Afful

46'

L. Mtange← L. Mtange

64'

G. J. Otanga Mvouo← G. J. Otanga Mvouo

64'

B. York← B. York

64'

C. Appiah← C. Appiah

66'

F. Awere← F. Awere

66'

E. Adu Siaw← E. Adu Siaw

78'

Y. Ouatching← Y. Ouatching

81'

86'

L. Sumaila← L. Sumaila

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff