Hearts of Oak vs Home Stars — Cup 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Hearts of Oak74%
Home Stars6%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hearts of Oak creates 455% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No76
- Yes24
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hearts of Oak ↓
Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hearts of Oak at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches
Home Stars away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hearts of Oak attack 2.33 + Home Stars defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83
Home Stars attack 0.33 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 74%?"
Hearts of Oak at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 74% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Hearts of Oak host Home Stars on Sunday, 12 January 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Cup 2022/2023 season.
Cup: Hearts of Oak 3–0 Home Stars
Hearts of Oak beat Home Stars 3-0 in Cup on January 12, 2025.
The match was played at University Of Ghana Sports Stadium in Accra.