Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars — Premier League 2019

Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Basake Holy Stars
Basake Holy Stars
9/8/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Accra Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hearts of Oak60%
×Draw26%
Basake Holy Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hearts of Oak
1.50
Basake Holy Stars
0.56

Hearts of Oak creates 168% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 33 away

creates per match

Hearts of Oak
1.25
Basake Holy Stars
0.45

allows per match

Hearts of Oak
0.66
Basake Holy Stars
1.76

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par
Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Basake Holy Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw
86%
Hearts of Oak or Basake Holy Stars
74%
Draw or Basake Holy Stars
40%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
32%
Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
78%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
44%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
19%
Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals
43%
Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals
11%
Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
81%
Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 109 matches

Basake Holy Stars away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.25 + Basake Holy Stars defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Basake Holy Stars attack 0.45 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more
60%
level
26%
Basake Holy Stars scores more
14%

Hearts of Oak at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars

Basake Holy Stars beat Hearts of Oak 1-0 in Premier League on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Accra Sports Stadium in Accra.