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Heartland vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
11/10/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 11Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Heartland56%
×Draw28%
Sunshine Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.40
Sunshine Stars
0.61

Heartland creates 130% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 110 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
84%
Heartland or Sunshine Stars
72%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
44%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
28%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
75%
Heartland 2+ goals
41%
Heartland 3+ goals
17%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
46%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
13%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
78%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Heartland scores more
56%
level
28%
Sunshine Stars scores more
16%

Heartland at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Heartland 1–0 Sunshine Stars

Heartland beat Sunshine Stars 1-0 in NPFL on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Dan Anyiam Stadium in Owerri.