Heartland 2–1 Shooting Stars: Result & Stats | NPFL

Heartland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shooting Stars

2/16/2025

NPFL · Round 24Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Heartland56%

×Draw27%

Shooting Stars17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeartlandExpected goals in this matchShooting Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.67

Heartland

1.45

Shooting Stars

0.67

Heartland creates 116% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 85 away

1.36

creates per match

0.60

0.74

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Heartland

1.36

Shooting Stars

0.60

allows per match

Heartland

0.74

Shooting Stars

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par

Shooting Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Shooting Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Heartland or draw

83%

Heartland or Shooting Stars

73%

Draw or Shooting Stars

44%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+

29%

Shooting Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals

77%

Heartland 2+ goals

42%

Heartland 3+ goals

18%

Shooting Stars 1+ goals

49%

Shooting Stars 2+ goals

15%

Shooting Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)

76%

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Shooting Stars away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Shooting Stars defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shooting Stars attack 0.60 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Heartland scores more

56%

level

27%

Shooting Stars scores more

17%

Heartland at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff