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Heartland vs Remo Stars — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Remo Stars
Remo Stars
10/27/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 9Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Heartland52%
×Draw27%
Remo Stars20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.40
Remo Stars
0.76

Heartland creates 84% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 99 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Remo Stars
0.78

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Remo Stars
1.44

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Remo Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
80%
Heartland or Remo Stars
73%
Draw or Remo Stars
48%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
26%
Remo Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
75%
Heartland 2+ goals
41%
Heartland 3+ goals
17%
Remo Stars 1+ goals
53%
Remo Stars 2+ goals
18%
Remo Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
72%
Remo Stars (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Remo Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Remo Stars attack 0.78 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Heartland scores more
52%
level
27%
Remo Stars scores more
20%

Heartland at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heartland vs Remo Stars

Heartland beat Remo Stars 1-0 in NPFL on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Dan Anyiam Stadium in Owerri.