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Heartland vs Niger Tornadoes — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
6/15/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 37Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Heartland56%
×Draw27%
Niger Tornadoes17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.45
Niger Tornadoes
0.66

Heartland creates 120% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 96 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Niger Tornadoes
0.58

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Niger Tornadoes
1.53

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Niger Tornadoes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
83%
Heartland or Niger Tornadoes
73%
Draw or Niger Tornadoes
44%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
29%
Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
77%
Heartland 2+ goals
42%
Heartland 3+ goals
18%
Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
48%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
14%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
77%
Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Niger Tornadoes away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Niger Tornadoes defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Niger Tornadoes attack 0.58 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Heartland scores more
56%
level
27%
Niger Tornadoes scores more
17%

Heartland at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Heartland 1–0 Niger Tornadoes

Heartland beat Niger Tornadoes 1-0 in NPFL on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Dan Anyiam Stadium in Owerri.