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Heartland vs Nasarawa United — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Nasarawa United
Nasarawa United
12/19/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 1Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Heartland55%
×Draw27%
Nasarawa United18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.46
Nasarawa United
0.71

Heartland creates 106% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 108 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Nasarawa United
0.69

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Nasarawa United
1.55

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Nasarawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Nasarawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
82%
Heartland or Nasarawa United
73%
Draw or Nasarawa United
45%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
28%
Nasarawa United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
77%
Heartland 2+ goals
43%
Heartland 3+ goals
18%
Nasarawa United 1+ goals
51%
Nasarawa United 2+ goals
16%
Nasarawa United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
75%
Nasarawa United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Nasarawa United away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.55 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Nasarawa United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nasarawa United attack 0.69 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Heartland scores more
55%
level
27%
Nasarawa United scores more
18%

Heartland at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Heartland 3–3 Nasarawa United

Heartland and Nasarawa United drew 3-3 in NPFL on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Dan Anyiam Stadium in Owerri.