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Heartland vs MFM — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
0 – 1
MFM
MFM
C. Ogwu 40'
11/3/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 1Okigwe Township Stadium (Okigwe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Heartland55%
×Draw28%
MFM17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.38
MFM
0.62

Heartland creates 123% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 62 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
MFM
0.50

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
MFM
1.39

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
MFM+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

MFM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
83%
Heartland or MFM
72%
Draw or MFM
45%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
27%
MFM wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
75%
Heartland 2+ goals
40%
Heartland 3+ goals
16%
MFM 1+ goals
46%
MFM 2+ goals
13%
MFM 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
77%
MFM (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 100 matches

MFM away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.39 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + MFM defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

MFM attack 0.50 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Heartland scores more
55%
level
28%
MFM scores more
17%

Heartland at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
C. Ogwu
41'
45'
59'
M. Mbonu← M. Mbonu
59'
80'
84'
O. Falana← O. Falana
90'
F. Abayomi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Heartland 0 – 1 MFM

MFM beat Heartland 1-0 in NPFL on November 3, 2019.

Goals: C. Ogwu (40').

The match was played at Okigwe Township Stadium (Okigwe).