Heartland 1–0 Lobi Stars: Result & Stats | NPFL

Heartland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lobi Stars

1/26/2025

NPFL · Round 20Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Heartland56%

×Draw27%

Lobi Stars17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeartlandExpected goals in this matchLobi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.64

Heartland

1.42

Lobi Stars

0.64

Heartland creates 122% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 113 away

1.36

creates per match

0.53

0.74

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Heartland

1.36

Lobi Stars

0.53

allows per match

Heartland

0.74

Lobi Stars

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par

Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Lobi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Heartland or draw

83%

Heartland or Lobi Stars

73%

Draw or Lobi Stars

44%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+

28%

Lobi Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals

76%

Heartland 2+ goals

41%

Heartland 3+ goals

17%

Lobi Stars 1+ goals

47%

Lobi Stars 2+ goals

14%

Lobi Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)

77%

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.48 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Lobi Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Heartland scores more

56%

level

27%

Lobi Stars scores more

17%

Heartland at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff