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Heartland vs Kada City — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
3 – 2
Kada City
Kada City
2/3/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Heartland57%
×Draw26%
Kada City17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.48
Kada City
0.67

Heartland creates 121% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 5 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Kada City
0.60

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Kada City
1.60

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Kada City+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Kada City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
83%
Heartland or Kada City
74%
Draw or Kada City
43%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
29%
Kada City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
77%
Heartland 2+ goals
43%
Heartland 3+ goals
19%
Kada City 1+ goals
49%
Kada City 2+ goals
15%
Kada City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
77%
Kada City (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Kada City away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Kada City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kada City attack 0.60 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Heartland scores more
57%
level
26%
Kada City scores more
17%

Heartland at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Heartland 3 – 2 Kada City

Heartland beat Kada City 3-2 in NPFL on February 3, 2019.