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Heartland vs Ifeanyi Uba — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
CANC
00:00
Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
4/19/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 31Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Heartland59%
×Draw25%
Ifeanyi Uba16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.57
Ifeanyi Uba
0.66

Heartland creates 138% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 46 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Ifeanyi Uba
0.57

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Ifeanyi Uba
1.78

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Ifeanyi Uba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
84%
Heartland or Ifeanyi Uba
75%
Draw or Ifeanyi Uba
41%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
32%
Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
79%
Heartland 2+ goals
46%
Heartland 3+ goals
21%
Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
48%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
14%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
79%
Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Ifeanyi Uba away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ifeanyi Uba attack 0.57 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Heartland scores more
59%
level
25%
Ifeanyi Uba scores more
16%

Heartland at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Heartland host Ifeanyi Uba

April 19, 2020: Heartland take on Ifeanyi Uba in NPFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Heartland host Ifeanyi Uba at Dan Anyiam Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.