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Heartland vs Gombe United — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gombe United
Gombe United
5/26/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 33Awka City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Heartland64%
×Draw24%
Gombe United12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.62
Gombe United
0.55

Heartland creates 195% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 58 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Gombe United
0.36

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Gombe United
1.88

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Gombe United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Gombe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
88%
Heartland or Gombe United
76%
Draw or Gombe United
36%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
35%
Gombe United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
80%
Heartland 2+ goals
48%
Heartland 3+ goals
22%
Gombe United 1+ goals
42%
Gombe United 2+ goals
11%
Gombe United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
84%
Gombe United (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Gombe United away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.88 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Gombe United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.62

Gombe United attack 0.36 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Heartland scores more
64%
level
24%
Gombe United scores more
12%

Heartland at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Heartland 3–0 Gombe United

Heartland beat Gombe United 3-0 in NPFL on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Awka City Stadium in Awka.