Heartland 0–2 Enugu Rangers: Result & Stats | NPFL

Heartland

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Enugu Rangers

3/24/2024

NPFL · Round 27Enyimba International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Heartland49%

×Draw30%

Enugu Rangers21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeartlandExpected goals in this matchEnugu Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.72

Heartland

1.25

Enugu Rangers

0.72

Heartland creates 74% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 130 away

1.36

creates per match

0.71

0.74

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Heartland

1.36

Enugu Rangers

0.71

allows per match

Heartland

0.74

Enugu Rangers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Enugu Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Heartland or draw

79%

Heartland or Enugu Rangers

70%

Draw or Enugu Rangers

51%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+

22%

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals

71%

Heartland 2+ goals

36%

Heartland 3+ goals

13%

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals

51%

Enugu Rangers 2+ goals

16%

Enugu Rangers 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)

70%

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Heartland scores more

49%

level

30%

Enugu Rangers scores more

21%

Heartland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff