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Heartland vs Bendel Insurance — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bendel Insurance
Bendel Insurance
12/6/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 12Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Heartland50%
×Draw30%
Bendel Insurance20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.25
Bendel Insurance
0.68

Heartland creates 84% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 79 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Bendel Insurance
0.61

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Bendel Insurance
1.13

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Bendel Insurance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
80%
Heartland or Bendel Insurance
70%
Draw or Bendel Insurance
50%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
23%
Bendel Insurance wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
71%
Heartland 2+ goals
36%
Heartland 3+ goals
13%
Bendel Insurance 1+ goals
49%
Bendel Insurance 2+ goals
15%
Bendel Insurance 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
71%
Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Heartland scores more
50%
level
30%
Bendel Insurance scores more
20%

Heartland at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heartland vs Bendel Insurance

Heartland beat Bendel Insurance 1-0 in NPFL on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Dan Anyiam Stadium in Owerri.