Heartland 2–1 Akwa United: Result & Stats | NPFL

Heartland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Akwa United

5/25/2025

NPFL · Round 38Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Heartland52%

×Draw29%

Akwa United20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeartlandExpected goals in this matchAkwa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.70

Heartland

1.32

Akwa United

0.70

Heartland creates 89% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 111 away

1.36

creates per match

0.66

0.74

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Heartland

1.36

Akwa United

0.66

allows per match

Heartland

0.74

Akwa United

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par

Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Akwa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Heartland or draw

80%

Heartland or Akwa United

71%

Draw or Akwa United

48%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+

25%

Akwa United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals

73%

Heartland 2+ goals

38%

Heartland 3+ goals

15%

Akwa United 1+ goals

50%

Akwa United 2+ goals

16%

Akwa United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)

72%

Akwa United (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Heartland scores more

52%

level

29%

Akwa United scores more

20%

Heartland at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff