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Heartland vs Akwa Starlets — NPFL 2019

Heartland
Heartland
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa Starlets
Akwa Starlets
12/29/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 3Dan Anyiam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Heartland58%
×Draw26%
Akwa Starlets16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heartland
1.48
Akwa Starlets
0.63

Heartland creates 135% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 60 away

creates per match

Heartland
1.36
Akwa Starlets
0.52

allows per match

Heartland
0.74
Akwa Starlets
1.60

finishing

Heartland+0.00on par
Akwa Starlets+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heartland ↓

Akwa Starlets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Heartland or draw
84%
Heartland or Akwa Starlets
74%
Draw or Akwa Starlets
42%

Winning margin

Heartland wins by 2+
30%
Akwa Starlets wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Heartland 1+ goals
77%
Heartland 2+ goals
43%
Heartland 3+ goals
19%
Akwa Starlets 1+ goals
47%
Akwa Starlets 2+ goals
13%
Akwa Starlets 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Heartland (draw refunded)
79%
Akwa Starlets (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heartland at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.74 · 99 matches

Akwa Starlets away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.60 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heartland attack 1.36 + Akwa Starlets defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Akwa Starlets attack 0.52 + Heartland defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Heartland scores more
58%
level
26%
Akwa Starlets scores more
16%

Heartland at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Heartland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Heartland 1–0 Akwa Starlets

Heartland beat Akwa Starlets 1-0 in NPFL on December 29, 2021.

The match was played at Dan Anyiam Stadium in Owerri.