Heart Of Midlothian 5–0 Airdrie United

Heart Of Midlothian

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Airdrie United

1/18/2020

FA Cup · 4th RoundTynecastle Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Heart Of Midlothian51%

×Draw22%

Airdrie United27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heart Of MidlothianExpected goals in this matchAirdrie United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.40

Heart Of Midlothian

2.00

Airdrie United

1.40

Heart Of Midlothian creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.50

creates per match

1.63

1.17

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Heart Of Midlothian

2.50

Airdrie United

1.63

allows per match

Heart Of Midlothian

1.17

Airdrie United

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par

Airdrie United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart Of Midlothian ↓

Airdrie United →

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Heart Of Midlothian or draw

73%

Heart Of Midlothian or Airdrie United

78%

Draw or Airdrie United

49%

Winning margin

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

30%

Airdrie United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

86%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

59%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

32%

Airdrie United 1+ goals

75%

Airdrie United 2+ goals

41%

Airdrie United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

66%

Airdrie United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Heart Of Midlothian at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Airdrie United away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Heart Of Midlothian attack 2.50 + Airdrie United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Airdrie United attack 1.63 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

51%

level

22%

Airdrie United scores more

27%

Heart Of Midlothian at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff