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Heart of Lions vs Vision — Premier League 2019

Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vision
Vision
10/12/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Kpandu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Heart of Lions57%
×Draw28%
Vision15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heart of Lions
1.34
Vision
0.54

Heart of Lions creates 148% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 33 away

creates per match

Heart of Lions
1.30
Vision
0.61

allows per match

Heart of Lions
0.46
Vision
1.39

finishing

Heart of Lions+0.00on par
Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart of Lions ↓

Vision →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Heart of Lions or draw
85%
Heart of Lions or Vision
72%
Draw or Vision
43%

Winning margin

Heart of Lions wins by 2+
28%
Vision wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Heart of Lions 1+ goals
74%
Heart of Lions 2+ goals
39%
Heart of Lions 3+ goals
15%
Vision 1+ goals
42%
Vision 2+ goals
10%
Vision 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Heart of Lions (draw refunded)
79%
Vision (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart of Lions at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.46 · 50 matches

Vision away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart of Lions attack 1.30 + Vision defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Vision attack 0.61 + Heart of Lions defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Heart of Lions scores more
57%
level
28%
Vision scores more
15%

Heart of Lions at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Heart of Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heart of Lions vs Vision

Heart of Lions and Vision drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Kpandu Stadium in Kpandu.