Heart of Lions 1–0 Swedru All Blacks

Heart of Lions

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swedru All Blacks

3/8/2026

Premier League · Round 25Kpandu stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Heart of Lions53%

×Draw30%

Swedru All Blacks18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heart of LionsExpected goals in this matchSwedru All Blacks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.61

Heart of Lions

1.27

Swedru All Blacks

0.61

Heart of Lions creates 108% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.30

creates per match

0.76

0.46

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Heart of Lions

1.30

Swedru All Blacks

0.76

allows per match

Heart of Lions

0.46

Swedru All Blacks

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heart of Lions+0.00on par

Swedru All Blacks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart of Lions ↓

Swedru All Blacks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Heart of Lions or draw

82%

Heart of Lions or Swedru All Blacks

70%

Draw or Swedru All Blacks

47%

Winning margin

Heart of Lions wins by 2+

25%

Swedru All Blacks wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Heart of Lions 1+ goals

72%

Heart of Lions 2+ goals

36%

Heart of Lions 3+ goals

14%

Swedru All Blacks 1+ goals

46%

Swedru All Blacks 2+ goals

13%

Swedru All Blacks 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Heart of Lions (draw refunded)

75%

Swedru All Blacks (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart of Lions at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.46 · 50 matches

Swedru All Blacks away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart of Lions attack 1.30 + Swedru All Blacks defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Swedru All Blacks attack 0.76 + Heart of Lions defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Heart of Lions scores more

53%

level

30%

Swedru All Blacks scores more

18%

Heart of Lions at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Heart of Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff