Heart of Lions 2–0 Hearts of Oak: Result & Stats

Heart of Lions

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hearts of Oak

9/15/2024

Premier League · Round 2Kpandu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Heart of Lions47%

×Draw33%

Hearts of Oak20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heart of LionsExpected goals in this matchHearts of Oak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.59

Heart of Lions

1.08

Hearts of Oak

0.59

Heart of Lions creates 83% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 108 away

1.30

creates per match

0.72

0.46

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Heart of Lions

1.30

Hearts of Oak

0.72

allows per match

Heart of Lions

0.46

Hearts of Oak

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heart of Lions+0.00on par

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart of Lions ↓

Hearts of Oak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Heart of Lions or draw

80%

Heart of Lions or Hearts of Oak

67%

Draw or Hearts of Oak

53%

Winning margin

Heart of Lions wins by 2+

20%

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Heart of Lions 1+ goals

66%

Heart of Lions 2+ goals

29%

Heart of Lions 3+ goals

10%

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

45%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

12%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Heart of Lions (draw refunded)

70%

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart of Lions at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.46 · 50 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart of Lions attack 1.30 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Heart of Lions defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Heart of Lions scores more

47%

level

33%

Hearts of Oak scores more

20%

Heart of Lions at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Heart of Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff