Heart of Lions 0–0 Great Olympics: Result & Stats

Heart of Lions

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Great Olympics

9/24/2023

Premier League · Round 2Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Heart of Lions55%

×Draw29%

Great Olympics16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heart of LionsExpected goals in this matchGreat Olympics

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.54

Heart of Lions

1.29

Great Olympics

0.54

Heart of Lions creates 139% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 75 away

1.30

creates per match

0.61

0.46

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Heart of Lions

1.30

Great Olympics

0.61

allows per match

Heart of Lions

0.46

Great Olympics

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heart of Lions+0.00on par

Great Olympics+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heart of Lions ↓

Great Olympics →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Heart of Lions or draw

84%

Heart of Lions or Great Olympics

71%

Draw or Great Olympics

45%

Winning margin

Heart of Lions wins by 2+

26%

Great Olympics wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Heart of Lions 1+ goals

72%

Heart of Lions 2+ goals

37%

Heart of Lions 3+ goals

14%

Great Olympics 1+ goals

42%

Great Olympics 2+ goals

10%

Great Olympics 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Heart of Lions (draw refunded)

78%

Great Olympics (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heart of Lions at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.46 · 50 matches

Great Olympics away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heart of Lions attack 1.30 + Great Olympics defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Great Olympics attack 0.61 + Heart of Lions defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Heart of Lions scores more

55%

level

29%

Great Olympics scores more

16%

Heart of Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Heart of Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

46'

C. A. Boateng← C. A. Boateng

46'

D. Hutor← D. Hutor

47'

65'

A. Duah← A. Duah

65'

K. Pong← K. Pong

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff