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Vasby United vs IK Frej — Superettan 2018

Vasby United
Vasby United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
IK Frej
IK Frej
11/3/2018SuperettanSuperettan · Round 29Tunavallen (Eskilstuna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vasby United50%
×Draw24%
IK Frej26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasby United
1.69
IK Frej
1.14

Vasby United creates 48% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

creates per match

Vasby United
1.55
IK Frej
1.30

allows per match

Vasby United
0.97
IK Frej
1.83

finishing

Vasby United+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby United ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vasby United or draw
74%
Vasby United or IK Frej
76%
Draw or IK Frej
50%

Winning margin

Vasby United wins by 2+
27%
IK Frej wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vasby United 1+ goals
82%
Vasby United 2+ goals
50%
Vasby United 3+ goals
24%
IK Frej 1+ goals
68%
IK Frej 2+ goals
32%
IK Frej 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vasby United (draw refunded)
66%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby United at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby United attack 1.55 + IK Frej defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

IK Frej attack 1.30 + Vasby United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vasby United scores more
50%
level
24%
IK Frej scores more
26%

Vasby United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vasby United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Vasby United 2–2 IK Frej

Vasby United and IK Frej drew 2-2 in Superettan on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Tunavallen (Eskilstuna).