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Dauphins Noirs vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
CANC
00:00
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
9/22/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade des Volcans (Goma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dauphins Noirs54%
×Draw26%
Bukavu Dawa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dauphins Noirs
1.51
Bukavu Dawa
0.82

Dauphins Noirs creates 84% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 27 away

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs
1.06
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs
0.84
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw
80%
Dauphins Noirs or Bukavu Dawa
74%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
46%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
28%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
78%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
44%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
19%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
56%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
20%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
72%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.51

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more
54%
level
26%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
20%

Dauphins Noirs at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dauphins Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dauphins Noirs host Bukavu Dawa

September 22, 2019: Dauphins Noirs take on Bukavu Dawa in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dauphins Noirs host Bukavu Dawa at Stade des Volcans (Goma).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.