Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bukavu Dawa vs Dauphins Noirs — Ligue 1 2019

Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
10/18/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bukavu Dawa33%
×Draw32%
Dauphins Noirs36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukavu Dawa
0.94
Dauphins Noirs
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 77 away

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa
0.52
Dauphins Noirs
0.78

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa
1.21
Dauphins Noirs
1.36

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par
Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

Dauphins Noirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw
64%
Bukavu Dawa or Dauphins Noirs
68%
Draw or Dauphins Noirs
67%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
12%
Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
61%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
24%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
7%
Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
63%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
26%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
48%
Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.94

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more
33%
level
32%
Dauphins Noirs scores more
36%

Dauphins Noirs at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Dauphins Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bukavu Dawa vs Dauphins Noirs

Dauphins Noirs beat Bukavu Dawa 1-0 in Ligue 1 on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Concorde in Bukavu.