HB Torshavn 1–7 NSI Runavik: Result & Stats

HB Torshavn

FT

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

NSI Runavik

Á. Jónsson 80'

P. Knudsen 83', 73', 64'

S. Løkin 51'

K. Olsen 48', 39', 5'

5/3/2025

Meistaradeildin · Round 8Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

HB Torshavn52%

×Draw21%

NSI Runavik27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB TorshavnExpected goals in this matchNSI Runavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.57

HB Torshavn

2.21

NSI Runavik

1.57

HB Torshavn creates 41% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 89 away

2.76

creates per match

2.21

0.93

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

HB Torshavn

2.76

NSI Runavik

2.21

allows per match

HB Torshavn

0.93

NSI Runavik

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

NSI Runavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

NSI Runavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw

73%

HB Torshavn or NSI Runavik

79%

Draw or NSI Runavik

48%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

31%

NSI Runavik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

89%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

65%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

38%

NSI Runavik 1+ goals

79%

NSI Runavik 2+ goals

46%

NSI Runavik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

65%

NSI Runavik (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.93 · 103 matches

NSI Runavik away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.65 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.76 + NSI Runavik defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.21

NSI Runavik attack 2.21 + HB Torshavn defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HB Torshavn scores more

52%

level

21%

NSI Runavik scores more

27%

HB Torshavn at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

23'

35'

35'

39'

48'

51'

55'

L. Faye← M. Voss

59'

B. Nolsøe← B. Hendriksson

64'

P. Knudsen

70'

B. Klein← J. Thomsen

71'

B. Olsen← J. Benjaminsen

71'

M. Przybylski← E. Joensen

71'

P. Hentze← K. Olsen

73'

P. Knudsen

80'

Á. Jónsson

81'

T. Knudsen← F. Østigård Ness

83'

P. Knudsen

85'

N. Mneney

88'

D. í Soylu← S. Skytte

88'

E. Pedersen← J. Enkerud

90+1'

S. Lokin

HB

NSI

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

⚽3

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Sormani

55'▲L. Faye←▼M. Voss

70'▲B. Klein←▼J. Thomsen

88'▲D. í Soylu←▼S. Skytte

88'▲E. Pedersen←▼J. Enkerud

HB Torshavn substitutes

FayeKleinSoyluPedersenHansenGuttesenReinholds

Manager: J. Wedeborg

59'▲B. Nolsøe←▼B. Hendriksson

71'▲B. Olsen←▼J. Benjaminsen

71'▲M. Przybylski←▼E. Joensen

71'▲P. Hentze←▼K. Olsen

81'▲T. Knudsen←▼F. Østigård Ness

NSI Runavik substitutes

NolsøeOlsenPrzybylskiHentzeKnudsenThomsenDanielsen

Match Recap: HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik

NSI Runavik beat HB Torshavn 7-1 in Meistaradeildin on May 3, 2025.

Goals: K. Olsen (5', 39', 48'), S. Løkin (51'), P. Knudsen (64', 73', 83'), Á. Jónsson (80').

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.

HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik — Meistaradeildin 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik