HB Torshavn 2–2 NSI Runavik: Result & Stats

HB Torshavn

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

NSI Runavik

O. Højgaard 90+3' (OG)

H. Jakobsen 68'

M. Mortensen 34'

A. Knudsen 33'

11/21/2021

Løgmanssteypid · Semi-finalsTórsvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

HB Torshavn51%

×Draw20%

NSI Runavik29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB TorshavnExpected goals in this matchNSI Runavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.68

HB Torshavn

2.26

NSI Runavik

1.68

HB Torshavn creates 35% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

2.64

creates per match

2.50

0.86

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

HB Torshavn

2.64

NSI Runavik

2.50

allows per match

HB Torshavn

0.86

NSI Runavik

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

NSI Runavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

NSI Runavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw

71%

HB Torshavn or NSI Runavik

80%

Draw or NSI Runavik

49%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

30%

NSI Runavik wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

89%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

66%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

39%

NSI Runavik 1+ goals

81%

NSI Runavik 2+ goals

50%

NSI Runavik 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

64%

NSI Runavik (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

NSI Runavik away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 2.64 + NSI Runavik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.26

NSI Runavik attack 2.50 + HB Torshavn defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

HB Torshavn scores more

51%

level

20%

NSI Runavik scores more

29%

HB Torshavn at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

A. Knudsen

34'

M. Mortensen

46'

M. Mikkelsen← S. Radosavljevic

56'

A. Knudsen

60'

M. Jakobsen← P. Skipanes

62'

L. Giessing← H. Hansen

68'

H. Jakobsen

70'

E. R. Nielsen

77'

B. Egilsson← K. Olsen

78'

P. Petersen← M. Przybylski

82'

T. Jensen← A. Knudsen

90+3'

O. HøjgaardOwn goal

HB

NSI

🥅

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: K. Schindler

46'▲M. Mikkelsen←▼S. Radosavljevic

62'▲L. Giessing←▼H. Hansen

78'▲P. Petersen←▼M. Przybylski

HB Torshavn substitutes

MikkelsenGiessingPetersenDamSamuelsenMørkWardum

Manager: W. McLeod Jacobsen

60'▲M. Jakobsen←▼P. Skipanes

77'▲B. Egilsson←▼K. Olsen

82'▲T. Jensen←▼A. Knudsen

NSI Runavik substitutes

JakobsenEgilssonJensenPetersenDanielsenDavidsenNielsen

Match Recap: HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik

HB Torshavn and NSI Runavik drew 2-2 in Løgmanssteypid on November 21, 2021.

Goals: A. Knudsen (33'), M. Mortensen (34'), H. Jakobsen (68'), O. Højgaard (90+3' o.g.).

The match was played at Tórsvøllur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.

HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik — Løgmanssteypid 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: HB Torshavn vs NSI Runavik