HB Torshavn 1–0 Newtown AFC: Result & Stats

HB Torshavn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Newtown AFC

B. Wardum 66'

7/7/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundGundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HB Torshavn81%

×Draw16%

Newtown AFC4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HB TorshavnExpected goals in this matchNewtown AFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.25

HB Torshavn

2.08

Newtown AFC

0.25

HB Torshavn creates 732% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.17

creates per match

0.33

0.17

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

HB Torshavn

1.17

Newtown AFC

0.33

allows per match

HB Torshavn

0.17

Newtown AFC

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Newtown AFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No81
Yes19

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HB Torshavn ↓

Newtown AFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–021%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–14%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

HB Torshavn or draw

96%

HB Torshavn or Newtown AFC

84%

Draw or Newtown AFC

19%

Winning margin

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

55%

Newtown AFC wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

87%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

61%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

34%

Newtown AFC 1+ goals

22%

Newtown AFC 2+ goals

3%

Newtown AFC 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

96%

Newtown AFC (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HB Torshavn at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Newtown AFC away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HB Torshavn attack 1.17 + Newtown AFC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Newtown AFC attack 0.33 + HB Torshavn defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

HB Torshavn scores more

81%

level

16%

Newtown AFC scores more

4%

HB Torshavn at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Callum Roberts

61'

Á. Samuelsen← P. Petersen

66'

B. Wardum

69'

Jake Walker

78'

H. Cowans← M. Jones

78'

Z. Ismail← N. Rushton

78'

L. Mwandwe← A. Williams

Statistics

HBNewtown

Overview

12Corners5